For three years, the multifamily story was about what went wrong: record new supply, higher interest rates and falling values. That story is changing, and in our view the next 12 to 24 months may offer one of the better entry points we have seen in a decade.
Below is what we are seeing in Dallas–Fort Worth, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville, why we think timing matters, what could still go wrong, and how to get involved.
Jonathan Benitah, Sponsor and Director of Investments
Prices have reset
Apartment values nationally are about 10% below their 2022 peak, according to RealPage data. Class B and C properties in the Sun Belt, the type we focus on, have repriced the most: RealPage puts Class C and workforce properties 20% to 30% below peak, compared with 7% to 8% for Class A (GlobeSt).
Recorded sales of Class B and C apartments in our markets show the same reset. Here is the average price per unit paid in 2022 compared with 2026 to date (Yardi Matrix):
| Market and class | Avg. price per unit, 2022 | Avg. price per unit, 2026 YTD | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas–Fort Worth, Class B | $154K | $108K | 30% lower |
| Dallas–Fort Worth, Class C | $122K | $81K | 34% lower |
| Jacksonville, Class B | $137K | $88K | 36% lower |
| Jacksonville, Class C | $112K | $67K | 40% lower |
These are averages of recorded sales, so they shift with the mix of properties that trade each year, and 2026 is still a thin year for transactions. Cap rates tell the same story. In late 2021, DFW apartment cap rates averaged 3% to 3.5% (Northmarq, Q4 2021). Today, Northmarq puts Class B deals in DFW generally near 5.5% to 5.75% (Q2 2026), and on the Class C deals we underwrite in both Texas and Florida, we are seeing cap rates around 6.5%, roughly 3 percentage points above where they were in 2021.
In plain terms, a comparable property often costs meaningfully less today than it did four years ago, and it is priced to produce more income relative to that price.
The supply wave is passing
New apartment construction has nearly stopped. U.S. multifamily starts fell to about 55,000 units in the first quarter of 2026, the lowest quarterly level since 2011 and 73% below the early-2022 peak (CoStar and Apartments.com, via Commercial Observer). Buildings not started today cannot open in 2028 or 2029.
Demand has nearly caught up with what is already being delivered. In the 12 months through Q3 2026, about 304,800 apartments were absorbed nationally against roughly 318,000 completions, the smallest gap since late 2015 (RealPage, via CRE Daily). National occupancy averaged 95.4%, and rents rose 0.9% year over year, the first annual increase since Q2 2025.
Our markets
Dallas–Fort Worth. DFW absorbed nearly 20,000 apartments in the first half of 2026, more than any other large U.S. market (Northmarq, via CRE Daily). In Q3, 6,736 units were absorbed against 6,390 delivered, and vacancy tightened to 6.1%. Trailing 12-month completions are down 23%, and annual completions peaked at 42,334 units in 2024. Average rent of $1,493 is still 3.4% below its 2023 peak (Matthews).
Tampa. Tampa delivered about 6,800 units in the 12 months through April 2026, nearly 50% fewer than the year before, while absorption roughly doubled (ALN). Occupancy reached 94.3% in Q2, absorption outpaced deliveries, and the construction pipeline shrank to 10,083 units from 11,998 a year earlier. Rents are still down 4.6% year over year (Colliers, via CRE Daily).
Orlando. Vacancy stood at 5.3% in Q3. Completions fell 49% from Q3 2025, and average rent of $1,729 is 5.2% below its 2022 peak (Matthews).
Jacksonville. Q3 absorption of 1,097 units outpaced 690 completions, and vacancy tightened 42 basis points to 6.0%. Rents rose 1.7% year over year, among the strongest in Florida, and trailing 12-month completions are down 40% (Matthews).
What could still go wrong
The recovery is real but incomplete, and we would rather say so plainly:
- Concessions are still high in Florida. About one-third of Florida properties offered concessions this spring, averaging about five weeks free on a 12-month lease, and Class C rents fell 2.7% over the prior year (ALN).
- Rents have not fully recovered. Average rents in all four of our markets remain below their prior peaks.
- Borrowing costs remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.9% in early November (CRE Daily), which keeps debt expensive.
- The rebound will be uneven. Some submarkets and property types will recover later than others, and some may not recover on our timeline.
That is why we underwrite with today’s rents and today’s concessions, not tomorrow’s.
Why we think timing matters
Apartment recoveries tend to follow a familiar order: occupancy firms up first, then concessions burn off, then rents start to grow, and buyers’ pricing follows rents. In our markets, occupancy is firming and new supply is shrinking, but rents and prices have not yet caught up.
In our view, that gap is the opportunity. Once rent growth is visible in the reported data, we expect more buyers to compete for the same properties and prices to reflect it. We cannot predict exactly when that happens, and it may take longer than we expect.
Our strategy has not changed: value-add B and C apartment communities in Dallas–Fort Worth, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. How we carry it out has:
- More conservative underwriting, based on today’s rents and concessions.
- Planning for somewhat longer holds, so a slower recovery does not force a sale at the wrong time.
- Disciplined use of capital. Every dollar we spend on property improvements is calculated and intentional, directed where we expect it to support rents and value.
What has not changed:
- Sponsors invest alongside investors in every deal.
- A track record to judge us by: we have sourced 25 realized investments, and all 25 returned investor capital plus a profit. See the full track record, including each deal’s results. Past results do not guarantee future results.
How to get involved
If you would like to hear about our next investment first, join our investor list. Members receive new offerings as they become available.
Questions about the market or how our investments work? Contact our team or call 310-786-8100.
Disclosures
This article is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Any offering is made only through its offering documents, to investors who qualify. Statements about future market conditions are our opinions as of November 2026, involve risks and uncertainties, and may not occur. Market data comes from the third-party sources cited, which we believe are reliable but have not independently verified. Real estate investments are illiquid and involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Sources: Yardi Matrix sales data · Northmarq: DFW Q4 2021 · Northmarq: DFW Q2 2026 · Matthews: DFW Q3 2026 · Matthews: Orlando Q3 2026 · Matthews: Jacksonville Q3 2026 · ALN: Florida recovery · CRE Daily: Tampa (Colliers) · CRE Daily: DFW absorption (Northmarq) · CRE Daily: national rents (RealPage) · Commercial Observer: construction starts · GlobeSt: repricing · CRE Daily: Treasury yields
This article is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.